On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Perfecting the On-grid Electricity Pricing Policy of Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation," which means that the industry has called for a long-term photovoltaic benchmarking on-grid price policy to finally land.
In general, the introduction of this policy will have a good impact on the development of China's photovoltaic industry, because, first, it is in line with China's "Renewable Energy Law" to determine the principle of renewable energy pricing; Second, in line with the power generation industry The objective law.
Observing objectively, this policy has yet to be improved: First, the policy sets a unified national benchmark for on-grid tariffs, instead of setting different regional tariffs based on resource differences as for wind power. This will easily lead to an over-concentration of photovoltaic power plants, which is not conducive to the effective use of resources. Second, the policy is still based on cost-based pricing. It does not give more attention to technological progress and cost reduction, and is not conducive to promoting technological progress. Third, there is no limit to the scale, which may cause the development of a certain period of time to grow too fast. We must learn from the lessons of European countries such as Spain and Italy. Because of the excessively subsidized prices, they have caused excessive growth in the installed capacity of photovoltaic cells. This not only causes excessive pressure on the grid, but also puts enormous pressure on financial subsidies, making it difficult Follow. It is not because the photovoltaic manufacturing industry has made a big robe. It is necessary to install a big fat man to fit in this big robe.
By farewell to the era of profiteering, by 2020, China's photovoltaic installed capacity may reach half of the world, or even more. Of course, this can only be achieved after the price of a flat PV on-grid tariff is realized. The government must adopt a clear benchmark for on-grid tariff adjustments to provide a long-term direction for the industry, that is, companies should no longer wish to develop through huge profits.
The direct winner of the benchmark on-grid tariff is the power station developer. Only the power plant developers will benefit, and the photovoltaic industry's market can achieve large-scale development, so that manufacturers can achieve sustainable development. Therefore, the so-called "photovoltaic plant developer" is not correct. Of course, manufacturers will no longer have a return rate of 30% to 40% as they used to, because manufacturing is not a profit-making industry unless companies occupy a technological high ground. For the entire industry, the return rate of PV manufacturing will drop to 10% or even lower.
The current benchmark on-grid tariff policy will encourage photovoltaic manufacturing companies to form scale operations and reduce costs. This will not be easier for a large number of SMEs. This is not to say that we must use policies to let them all go. At present, the powerful photovoltaic manufacturers are eager to create a vertically integrated industrial chain. However, it is difficult for companies to be proficient in all aspects and do their best. This will add all the risks in the industry. For now, no domestic company has formed a complete vertically integrated industrial chain. In addition, to observe the good or bad of this model and see its market reaction, if its financing cost is high, it proves that its efficiency is not good. Therefore, many large companies are considering adopting joint, collaborative, and other methods to change the development model, and some can even activate small and medium-sized enterprises through acquisitions, mergers, and OEMs. In this way, large companies and SMEs have achieved a win-win situation. China's photovoltaic industry may usher in a new era of coalition, collaboration and integration.
Electricity price subsidies will not boost inflation At present, the industry is concerned that although the benchmarked on-grid price policy has been introduced, because electricity added at 4 cents per kilowatt-hour is not enough to subsidize renewable energy such as wind power and biomass power generation, Excess funds to subsidize photovoltaic power generation. In fact, this worry is completely unnecessary. According to the author's calculation, by 2020, the on-grid electricity price of wind power will be basically the same as the benchmark price of coal-fired power generation. The focus of subsidies will be on solar power generation such as photovoltaic power generation. Even if the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic cells in China will reach 100 million kilowatts, and the annual generation of electricity will be approximately 120 billion kilowatt-hours, the subsidy of 0.3 yuan per kilowatt-hour will be approximately 36 billion yuan per year. Therefore, we can increase the subsidy for renewable energy prices up to two cents per kilowatt-hour in 10 years, which means that the annual increase will be 2 cents per year.
At present, the national electricity-side electricity price has already exceeded 0.5 yuan per kilowatt-hour. A two-cent increase per kilowatt-hour during the ten years can be said to have little impact, and it will not cause so-called inflation. In addition, compared with thermal power, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power is very small, and its subsidies will not bring much financial pressure. Of course, we must control the scale and cannot do too much. We must force PV on-grid tariffs to drop below 1 yuan in 2015, and below 0.8 yuan in 2020 to prepare for its large-scale development.
Policies to Drive the Development of the East The current policy of benchmarking on-grid tariffs is likely to lead to the development of photovoltaic power stations and make the development of resources too concentrated. For example, the outsourcing of wind power in Gansu Province has already been difficult. If we add a few hundred thousand kilowatts of photovoltaics, it is very likely that there will be no power transmission. It cannot be said that there must be resources for development. It also depends on transmission capacity and transmission costs. In fact, solar energy and wind energy are completely different. For example, some wind resources in the western region are particularly rich. In some eastern regions, there are almost no wind resources. However, solar energy in Qinghai, the region with the best sunshine conditions, has more than 1600 hours of electricity generation per year, while Jiangsu, where sunshine conditions are relatively poor, has annual electricity generation hours of 1,200 hours. There is not much difference between the two. The price of electricity transmitted from Qinghai to Jiangsu at one kilowatt-hour is definitely higher than the price of electricity at one kilowatt-hour in Jiangsu. Therefore, from the economic point of view, photovoltaic power plant construction should be as close as possible to the power load center.
After the introduction of fixed benchmark on-grid tariffs, the photovoltaic power pricing policies introduced by local governments will need to be adjusted appropriately to suit them. It is possible to allow Shandong, Jiangsu and other previously introduced local PV on-grid tariffs to be higher than fixed benchmark on-grid tariffs. The sunshine duration in the eastern region is short, so on the basis of the fixed benchmark on-grid price, the local government will have to subsidize it again, and then a few cents per kilowatt hour, otherwise it will not be able to sustain its development. For example, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Guangdong Other economically developed provinces are fully capable of doing so. In this way, the local photovoltaic industry can achieve rapid development.
Various policies will continue to coexist with the National Development and Reform Commission's benchmark pricing policy, and promote the coexistence of the three mechanisms of fixed benchmark on-grid tariff, Golden Sun project, and concession bidding in the photovoltaic power generation market in China. It is normal for these three policy forms to continue to coexist. Before the tender price and the fixed price, the Ministry of Finance introduced the Golden Sun project. The core of the Golden Sun project is “self-occupationâ€, which is attractive to areas with high user electricity prices, such as Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Guangdong. Its largest beneficiary region is the eastern region, but it is less attractive to the western region where the price of electricity is very low.
The concession bidding project solves a series of problems such as land acquisition for landlords, grid access, project approval and project financing. In particular, after the introduction of a unified national benchmark electricity price, the bidding price and the benchmark price will gradually approach each other. Therefore, the concession bidding Large investors still have some attractions. Under the condition of unified national benchmark price, the electricity price of 1.15 yuan per kilowatt-hour is mainly concentrated in the western region. Therefore, all three policy mechanisms have their scope of application and they all have their rationality.
Policies should take into account the interests of investment entities. Photovoltaic power generation is most suitable for distributed generation and is suitable for installation of photovoltaic power stations on the electricity side. But to balance the interests of all parties, especially the interests of power grid companies can not be ignored. Although the grid companies are monopolistic enterprises and bear great social responsibilities, they are also enterprises and need to be profitable. For example, German policy has made grid companies not opposed to the installation of photovoltaic rooftop power stations. Because, the amount of electricity generated by the photovoltaic rooftop power station, either for self-use or for sale to other consumers through the power grid, is considered to be the electricity sold by the grid. In this way, the interests of the power grid companies are guaranteed and there is enthusiasm to promote the development of the photovoltaic industry. Therefore, if China is to achieve sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry, it must achieve the balance of various stakeholders.
At present, the “Electricity Law†stipulates that only qualified power developers can sell power to the grid companies. This has caused many problems.
Photovoltaic project developers can only sell photovoltaic power to grid companies by obtaining a business license in this area. For example, in the implementation of the Golden Sun project, a court installed a photovoltaic system on the roof, and the court was a non-operating entity and could not open invoices for electricity sales. The grid company could not purchase its photovoltaic power. For another example, a photovoltaic system is installed on a person's roof. If the user applies for a business license, this means that the person has a job. If the person is a laid-off worker, he may apply for unemployment compensation. All these problems need to be addressed and resolved.
Businesses look at the domestic market for long-term perspective Some first-tier companies believe that since the domestic benchmarking on-grid price is so low, China’s sales are good in the international market and they can get high prices. Why sell products to the domestic market? What companies are chasing is the interest. This is understandable. In the long-term, ten years later, China's photovoltaic installed capacity may account for half of the world's total. If we do not vigorously exploit the domestic market because of the low price of the current one-off, after the market is occupied by other companies, it will not be worth the loss.
As a photovoltaic power plant developer, he has to choose low-priced products on the one hand and quality-reliable products on the other. Therefore, there may be individual power stations with poor quality, but no major problems will appear in the entire industry. . From a manufacturer's point of view, do not worry that companies that are producing inferior products and engage in vicious competition will defeat them. Those companies that can survive for a hundred years are very good companies that continue to innovate and improve.
In general, the introduction of this policy will have a good impact on the development of China's photovoltaic industry, because, first, it is in line with China's "Renewable Energy Law" to determine the principle of renewable energy pricing; Second, in line with the power generation industry The objective law.
Observing objectively, this policy has yet to be improved: First, the policy sets a unified national benchmark for on-grid tariffs, instead of setting different regional tariffs based on resource differences as for wind power. This will easily lead to an over-concentration of photovoltaic power plants, which is not conducive to the effective use of resources. Second, the policy is still based on cost-based pricing. It does not give more attention to technological progress and cost reduction, and is not conducive to promoting technological progress. Third, there is no limit to the scale, which may cause the development of a certain period of time to grow too fast. We must learn from the lessons of European countries such as Spain and Italy. Because of the excessively subsidized prices, they have caused excessive growth in the installed capacity of photovoltaic cells. This not only causes excessive pressure on the grid, but also puts enormous pressure on financial subsidies, making it difficult Follow. It is not because the photovoltaic manufacturing industry has made a big robe. It is necessary to install a big fat man to fit in this big robe.
By farewell to the era of profiteering, by 2020, China's photovoltaic installed capacity may reach half of the world, or even more. Of course, this can only be achieved after the price of a flat PV on-grid tariff is realized. The government must adopt a clear benchmark for on-grid tariff adjustments to provide a long-term direction for the industry, that is, companies should no longer wish to develop through huge profits.
The direct winner of the benchmark on-grid tariff is the power station developer. Only the power plant developers will benefit, and the photovoltaic industry's market can achieve large-scale development, so that manufacturers can achieve sustainable development. Therefore, the so-called "photovoltaic plant developer" is not correct. Of course, manufacturers will no longer have a return rate of 30% to 40% as they used to, because manufacturing is not a profit-making industry unless companies occupy a technological high ground. For the entire industry, the return rate of PV manufacturing will drop to 10% or even lower.
The current benchmark on-grid tariff policy will encourage photovoltaic manufacturing companies to form scale operations and reduce costs. This will not be easier for a large number of SMEs. This is not to say that we must use policies to let them all go. At present, the powerful photovoltaic manufacturers are eager to create a vertically integrated industrial chain. However, it is difficult for companies to be proficient in all aspects and do their best. This will add all the risks in the industry. For now, no domestic company has formed a complete vertically integrated industrial chain. In addition, to observe the good or bad of this model and see its market reaction, if its financing cost is high, it proves that its efficiency is not good. Therefore, many large companies are considering adopting joint, collaborative, and other methods to change the development model, and some can even activate small and medium-sized enterprises through acquisitions, mergers, and OEMs. In this way, large companies and SMEs have achieved a win-win situation. China's photovoltaic industry may usher in a new era of coalition, collaboration and integration.
Electricity price subsidies will not boost inflation At present, the industry is concerned that although the benchmarked on-grid price policy has been introduced, because electricity added at 4 cents per kilowatt-hour is not enough to subsidize renewable energy such as wind power and biomass power generation, Excess funds to subsidize photovoltaic power generation. In fact, this worry is completely unnecessary. According to the author's calculation, by 2020, the on-grid electricity price of wind power will be basically the same as the benchmark price of coal-fired power generation. The focus of subsidies will be on solar power generation such as photovoltaic power generation. Even if the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic cells in China will reach 100 million kilowatts, and the annual generation of electricity will be approximately 120 billion kilowatt-hours, the subsidy of 0.3 yuan per kilowatt-hour will be approximately 36 billion yuan per year. Therefore, we can increase the subsidy for renewable energy prices up to two cents per kilowatt-hour in 10 years, which means that the annual increase will be 2 cents per year.
At present, the national electricity-side electricity price has already exceeded 0.5 yuan per kilowatt-hour. A two-cent increase per kilowatt-hour during the ten years can be said to have little impact, and it will not cause so-called inflation. In addition, compared with thermal power, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power is very small, and its subsidies will not bring much financial pressure. Of course, we must control the scale and cannot do too much. We must force PV on-grid tariffs to drop below 1 yuan in 2015, and below 0.8 yuan in 2020 to prepare for its large-scale development.
Policies to Drive the Development of the East The current policy of benchmarking on-grid tariffs is likely to lead to the development of photovoltaic power stations and make the development of resources too concentrated. For example, the outsourcing of wind power in Gansu Province has already been difficult. If we add a few hundred thousand kilowatts of photovoltaics, it is very likely that there will be no power transmission. It cannot be said that there must be resources for development. It also depends on transmission capacity and transmission costs. In fact, solar energy and wind energy are completely different. For example, some wind resources in the western region are particularly rich. In some eastern regions, there are almost no wind resources. However, solar energy in Qinghai, the region with the best sunshine conditions, has more than 1600 hours of electricity generation per year, while Jiangsu, where sunshine conditions are relatively poor, has annual electricity generation hours of 1,200 hours. There is not much difference between the two. The price of electricity transmitted from Qinghai to Jiangsu at one kilowatt-hour is definitely higher than the price of electricity at one kilowatt-hour in Jiangsu. Therefore, from the economic point of view, photovoltaic power plant construction should be as close as possible to the power load center.
After the introduction of fixed benchmark on-grid tariffs, the photovoltaic power pricing policies introduced by local governments will need to be adjusted appropriately to suit them. It is possible to allow Shandong, Jiangsu and other previously introduced local PV on-grid tariffs to be higher than fixed benchmark on-grid tariffs. The sunshine duration in the eastern region is short, so on the basis of the fixed benchmark on-grid price, the local government will have to subsidize it again, and then a few cents per kilowatt hour, otherwise it will not be able to sustain its development. For example, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Guangdong Other economically developed provinces are fully capable of doing so. In this way, the local photovoltaic industry can achieve rapid development.
Various policies will continue to coexist with the National Development and Reform Commission's benchmark pricing policy, and promote the coexistence of the three mechanisms of fixed benchmark on-grid tariff, Golden Sun project, and concession bidding in the photovoltaic power generation market in China. It is normal for these three policy forms to continue to coexist. Before the tender price and the fixed price, the Ministry of Finance introduced the Golden Sun project. The core of the Golden Sun project is “self-occupationâ€, which is attractive to areas with high user electricity prices, such as Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Guangdong. Its largest beneficiary region is the eastern region, but it is less attractive to the western region where the price of electricity is very low.
The concession bidding project solves a series of problems such as land acquisition for landlords, grid access, project approval and project financing. In particular, after the introduction of a unified national benchmark electricity price, the bidding price and the benchmark price will gradually approach each other. Therefore, the concession bidding Large investors still have some attractions. Under the condition of unified national benchmark price, the electricity price of 1.15 yuan per kilowatt-hour is mainly concentrated in the western region. Therefore, all three policy mechanisms have their scope of application and they all have their rationality.
Policies should take into account the interests of investment entities. Photovoltaic power generation is most suitable for distributed generation and is suitable for installation of photovoltaic power stations on the electricity side. But to balance the interests of all parties, especially the interests of power grid companies can not be ignored. Although the grid companies are monopolistic enterprises and bear great social responsibilities, they are also enterprises and need to be profitable. For example, German policy has made grid companies not opposed to the installation of photovoltaic rooftop power stations. Because, the amount of electricity generated by the photovoltaic rooftop power station, either for self-use or for sale to other consumers through the power grid, is considered to be the electricity sold by the grid. In this way, the interests of the power grid companies are guaranteed and there is enthusiasm to promote the development of the photovoltaic industry. Therefore, if China is to achieve sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry, it must achieve the balance of various stakeholders.
At present, the “Electricity Law†stipulates that only qualified power developers can sell power to the grid companies. This has caused many problems.
Photovoltaic project developers can only sell photovoltaic power to grid companies by obtaining a business license in this area. For example, in the implementation of the Golden Sun project, a court installed a photovoltaic system on the roof, and the court was a non-operating entity and could not open invoices for electricity sales. The grid company could not purchase its photovoltaic power. For another example, a photovoltaic system is installed on a person's roof. If the user applies for a business license, this means that the person has a job. If the person is a laid-off worker, he may apply for unemployment compensation. All these problems need to be addressed and resolved.
Businesses look at the domestic market for long-term perspective Some first-tier companies believe that since the domestic benchmarking on-grid price is so low, China’s sales are good in the international market and they can get high prices. Why sell products to the domestic market? What companies are chasing is the interest. This is understandable. In the long-term, ten years later, China's photovoltaic installed capacity may account for half of the world's total. If we do not vigorously exploit the domestic market because of the low price of the current one-off, after the market is occupied by other companies, it will not be worth the loss.
As a photovoltaic power plant developer, he has to choose low-priced products on the one hand and quality-reliable products on the other. Therefore, there may be individual power stations with poor quality, but no major problems will appear in the entire industry. . From a manufacturer's point of view, do not worry that companies that are producing inferior products and engage in vicious competition will defeat them. Those companies that can survive for a hundred years are very good companies that continue to innovate and improve.
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