Polysilicon access standards will usher in the reshuffle

"Polysilicon industry access standards" formally introduced on the 24th, the analysis believes that after the introduction of the standard, the polysilicon industry will usher in the reshuffle, the current domestic provinces up to 170,000 tons of planned production capacity, most will be lost.

Comprehensive media reported on January 24th that a "Polysilicon Industry Access Standard" (hereinafter referred to as "Standard") that has been brewing for more than one year has been formally released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The polysilicon industry will usher in a revolutionary change.

The "Standard" has made clear provisions and restrictions on the site selection, energy consumption, environmental protection, and scale of polysilicon production. The new solar-grade polysilicon project has a scale of more than 3,000 tons per year, and no polysilicon enterprises can be built within 1,000 meters of the nature reserve, water source area, residential area, etc., and the solar-grade polysilicon reduction power consumption should be less than 60 kWh/kg. Affects most companies.

The “Standards” issued today after a year and a half of soliciting opinions are basically regarded as the details of the 2009 State Council's No. 38 document (“Some Ideas on Suppressing Some Industries from Overcapacity and Duplicate Construction and Leading the Healthy Development of Industries”). In the third quarter of 2009, Huaneng started to solicit opinions among many major polysilicon manufacturers in China.

The vice general manager of Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon Technology Development Co., Ltd., Lu Jinbiao, confirmed to Netease Finance at the end of last year that the company had participated in the discussion of the standard many times. According to the “China Business” report, many companies, including LDK, Shin Kong Silicon, and Emei Semiconductor, have participated in the discussion.

Previously, the market expected that the "Standard" could be introduced in the first quarter of 2010 as soon as possible, but it only came out after one year of knowing. Today, it can be seen that there have been many differences in the standard discussion process.

According to NetEase Finance, the introduction of the "Standard" stems from the serious problems of repeated construction of polysilicon and disorderly development after the 2009 financial crisis. Prior to this, all localities rushed to the polysilicon project and attracted the attention of the relevant state agencies. In August and September of 2009, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Council issued the "Summer Report on China's Industrial Economic Operations in 2009" and "Several Opinions on Suppressing Overcapacity and Repeated Construction in Selected Industries and Leading the Healthy Development of Industries" in order to control the situation. .

The industry will usher in a reshuffle of these terms, which were opposed by local businesses when seeking opinions. For example, at a distance of 1,000 meters, the company believes that the recycling efficiency of silicon tetrachloride, hydrogen chloride, and hydrogen in the reducing gas should be no less than 98.5%, 99%, and 99%; and for a 3,000-ton capacity limit, a company in Henan is responsible for People told the media that there are only a few companies that can currently go to this scale.

A senior executive who once participated in the discussion of the "Standards" once told the media that according to this standard, "at present, only one-fourth of the country's more than 40 polysilicon enterprises have reached this level. After the introduction of the standard, the domestic Most of the planned capacity of up to 170,000 tons in provinces will be lost."

Statistics from China Investment Securities show that as of the first half of 2009, nearly 50 companies in more than 20 provinces such as Sichuan, Henan, Jiangsu and Yunnan have been constructing, expanding and planning to build polysilicon production lines with a total construction scale of over 170,000 tons. The investment exceeds 100 billion yuan. If these capacities are fully realized, it will be equivalent to more than twice the annual global polysilicon demand.

It is understood that according to the regulations, polysilicon companies in Sichuan, Henan and other provinces will be the most affected. According to statistics from analysts, of the 170,000 tons of planned capacity in China, more than 60% are single-line capacity of 3,000 tons or less.

Cui Qiang, chief analyst of energy adviser Jiang Qian had previously evaluated the impact of the "standard" after the introduction of the view that the polysilicon industry will undergo a major change, the weaker out, the stronger status is more consolidated in the future there will be seven or eight large-scale polysilicon companies.

Constraints on overcapacity in production capacity Since the financial crisis, the market has been filled with a serious oversupply of polysilicon production capacity. The planned production capacity of 170,000 tons seems to confirm this conclusion, but people in the industry believe that simply saying that the polysilicon production capacity is surplus is a one-sided statement. Their evidence mainly includes two points: First, the planned production capacity does not equal the official production capacity; Second, China still needs to import a large amount of polysilicon each year.

Although China had 170,000 tons of planned production capacity as of 2009, few projects have been approved by the state since the end of 2009. Only one modification and expansion project of Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon was approved, and most of the planned projects have not been approved. There is still a long way to go before the formation of production capacity. From the corporate level, depending on capacity planning, actual benefits can be obtained from local governments. However, based on the sharp decline in polysilicon prices in the international market, there is also some consideration in capacity building.

In addition, although China is the country with the largest polysilicon production capacity in the world, imported polysilicon still accounts for a large proportion of each year. Zhao Yuwen, vice chairman of the Photovoltaic Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, pointed out that "China's polysilicon has not experienced surpluses from beginning to end. We have been importing and there is still a 40% material gap in the next five years. Polysilicon still can't meet the demand." Among them are some high-purity polysilicon that can't be satisfied in China for the time being.