2011 Technology Preview

What will be the brightest technology industry in 2011? There is no doubt that mobile communications will continue to dominate, while other vendors outside of Apple will continue to seek tablet strategies, and laptop prices continue to decline. In the software section, the rise of cloud computing will hurt the developers of enterprise applications.

The above predictions for the development of science and technology in 2011 can be sniffed at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) that opened this week.

Tablet PC 1. Apple iPad will continue to lead the way. Although Android tablet PCs are in vogue, the iPad will continue to dominate. For Android tablet PCs, it is expected to obtain half market share forecast next year. It may be a little too optimistic, at least. Before the middle of this year, Android has not been able to compare with the Apple iPad. Apple’s new generation of iPads, with its price advantage, believes it will continue to be in a leading position.

2. RIM's PlayBook may be favored by some companies, but otherwise it may be lacking. RIM has been trying to show, explain and discuss the PlayBook to developers in the past few months. However, the scope seems to be limited to the use of the BlackBerry in corporate email. To a certain extent, the use of the BlackBerry and PlayBook for the enterprise is no different. Thanks to these features, Android and Apple's tablet computers can also do it.

3. Microsoft's desire to make Windows Phone 7 a dominating tablet operating system may bring years of trouble to Microsoft. From 2011, Microsoft may continue to promote all its operating systems to the tablet.

Mobile communications 1. Windows Phone 7 is expected to use 14% of the mobile phone market by the end of 2011, while Android may dominate the mobile phone market. As for Apple's iOS, it is expected to maintain its current market share. RIM will continue to face the problem of splitting market share. Even if the launch of the QNX operating system may provoke some embarrassment, it is indeed a major trend for BlackBerry manufacturers.

Hardware 1. Laptop quotes (extremely light, enhanced netbooks, etc.) will drop at around $350. A large number of cheap and good laptops will lead the netbook to extinction. Of course, there will still be 10 or so models, but there are few, the main force will still fall in the 12-inch and above models.

2. The server update cycle may slow down. There are three main reasons for this. In the long run, virtualization reduces the need for hardware, 2. Revisit and correct the cause of the data center's weakness, 3. Cloud computing continues to gain greater share.

3. Hewlett-Packard may become a potential concern for Cisco, because HP's switches and routers and other products continue to erode the market share of Cisco. Although Cisco has the opportunity to hold on to the current market share, HP will bring considerable pressure on Cisco to take profit. For current network product vendors such as Cisco and Juniper Networks, the next few quarters will face fierce competition.

Software 1. The concept of software-as-a-service will be widely adopted by enterprises, but this prediction of software-as-a-service is not the final result, and may eventually be won by the on-demand software. The reason is that Oracle will soon release the Fusion application so that customers can decide whether to upgrade. SAP CEO Bill McDermott pointed out that the company will benefit from Oracle's new software, because these changes may bring sales, but also allow companies to rethink how to choose the right product from Oracle, SAP and software as a service.

2. HP understands that it is impossible for itself to grow in the software market alone, so the solution will be to acquire software companies such as Citrix, BMC and Teradata.

3. It is not yet known what impact Google’s Chrome OS may have on the software industry. Although there is some news about Microsoft Windows 8, the author hopes that Windows 7 can maintain at least 10 years.

4. Cloud computing is still the focus of 2011, and all hardware, software, and technology will revolve around this topic. In the end, the cloud will evolve into words used to help sales of hardware and software and lose its own meaning.

Network 1. If AT&T does not tie up the exclusive sales of Apple's iPhone, it may make revenues look better. The cooperation between the iPhone and Verizon Wireless is generally believed to be caused by AT&T's mess, but the truth is not. When many iPhone users are forced to bind for about 18 months, it will cause AT&T network traffic problems. So when Verizon can share some iPhone users, it can also help improve AT&T's network quality and reduce its investment in the Internet. And AT&T does not stop its cooperation with Apple. It just no longer enjoys exclusive rights.

2. Verizon will not be able to rule the world for iPhone sales, and will not bring substantial benefits to Verizon in the first half of 2011. Of course, Verizon will increase customers by selling iPhone, but at least in these two years, it will not affect AT&T.

3. The long-awaited 4G may finally be disappointing. And Verizon's upcoming 4G service is likely to be quickly converted from the original definition of the 50 US dollars price to 80 US dollars, the extra costs may slow down the need for users to switch to 4G.

4. The ideal of network neutrality may be disillusioned. Although the FCC adopts the rules of open networks, the Congress may eventually change. The reason is that the issue of network neutrality is not an important issue, and according to the opinion poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports, only 21% of them agree that the FCC should continue its net neutrality. Most of the respondents are not concerned about this issue. (Larry Dignan)

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