Since the launch of the semiconductor lighting project in the country in 2003, China's semiconductor lighting industry has entered a stage of rapid growth. Epitaxial, chip and packaging companies are everywhere. LED products are widely used in landscape lighting, display, backlight, and field. Functional lighting products have entered. During the pilot phase... Despite the financial crisis, the overall development of the industry in 2008 was lower than expected at the beginning of the year. However, since March this year, the industrial situation has rapidly improved, and corporate investment and capacity expansion have accelerated, showing a trend of rising against the trend.
Industrial development exceeded expectations in 2009
In the upstream epitaxial chip, the production capacity is developing rapidly, the technology is continuously improving, and it has begun to enter the middle and high-end application fields, but the technical level still has a gap. In 2008, the output value of the chip increased by 26% to 1.9 billion yuan, which was lower than the growth rate of 43% in 2007. From the fourth quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009, the sales decreased by 30% on average, and the chip price continued to fall. Compared with the beginning of 2008, the overall reduction was 40%; in 2008, MOCVD reached 135 units, and the domestic production capacity of GaN chips reached 1400 kk. In 2009, the equipment plan was increased by more than 100 units, and the chip capacity growth rate is expected to exceed 60%. At present, the domestic industrial level of power chip has reached 90-100lm/W, with independent intellectual property rights technology, Si substrate chip light efficiency reaches 70lm / W; chip localization rate reached 49%, into the high-end application field, display Domestic chips in the field of screens account for more than 50%; although the chip technology has made rapid progress, it is still lower than the international advanced level, and 80% of high-power chips still rely on imports.
The structure of the package in the middle reaches has been significantly improved, but the scale of the company is generally small, and it has not yet entered the mainstream fields such as medium and large size backlights. In 2008, the output value of LED packaging reached 18.5 billion yuan, an increase of 10% over 2007. The product structure has been gradually improved, and the proportion of high-brightness products has reached 76% (sales); the production capacity of LED packaging products with small varieties and multiple batches (such as miner's lamp, landscape lamp, etc.) is strong; some enterprises have high-power packaging level and international First-class level synchronization. However, there are currently more than 1,000 domestic packaging enterprises, and only a few dozen companies with annual sales exceeding 100 million yuan. 80% of enterprises invest less than 10 million yuan, with small scale, mainly export processing, and a single product structure.
The downstream applications are booming, the production capacity is leading globally, and the technical level is significantly improved, but it has not yet formed a leading enterprise. In 2008, China's LED application market was 45 billion yuan, an increase of 50% over 2007. The application field is booming, and applications such as display screens and functional lighting are at the forefront of the international market. The share of display and architectural lighting accounts for 66.6% of the total application market. The territorial application of lighting applications has developed rapidly, with nearly 200,000 street lamps already being used on major trunk roads. Large traditional lighting companies began to pay attention to LED lighting; more than ten domestic enterprises have become internationally renowned branded product OEMs (ODM), product design, production technology level is in the forefront of the world, but independent brand operation and marketing system is still not perfect, lack of A globally influential brand enterprise.
The development pattern is gradually changing, and capital is accelerating into the LED industry. In 2009, 21 cities were listed as “Ten Cities and Ten Thousand Cities†pilot cities. From January to September 2009, 12 cities across the country announced the construction of a semiconductor lighting industry base. Local governments are actively involved, and more regions have announced the construction of a semiconductor lighting industry base. A new industrial structure will be formed within 3-5 years.
Semiconductor lighting will be invested from initial private capital investment in venture capital, and then into the participation of large state-owned enterprises. The total investment scale will reach tens of billions. In the first half of 2009, LED projects were launched all over the country, and the total investment budget has exceeded 20 billion yuan. The huge orders of upstream equipment show the attention and promotion of capital for the LED industry. By the end of 2008, China's LED private and joint ventures accounted for 80% of the total.
From the above situation and the statistics from the beginning of 2008 to July 2009, the overall development of China's semiconductor lighting industry in 2009 will exceed the expectations in early 2009.
Despite the rapid development of China's LED industry, it still faces many challenges. The lack of core patents and talents is an important issue that restricts the development of China's LED industry. As of July 2009, the number of employees in the semiconductor lighting industry in China exceeded 800,000. It is estimated that the demand for new talents will reach 600,000 in 2010-2012, and the gap is very large. There are four major problems in the human resources of the industry, such as insufficient talent supply, lack of high-end core technical talents, lack of vocational training system, and high turnover rate of personnel with certain skills.
Opportunities and challenges coexist
As a revolutionary technology, semiconductor lighting is currently facing excellent development opportunities.
First of all, the government's attention and support provide a guarantee for the rapid development of the semiconductor lighting industry. In recent years, the government has paid great attention to energy conservation and emission reduction, and has formulated relevant consumption reduction targets and industrial policies. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, China’s energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by 20%. By 2020, energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by 40% to 60% compared with 2005. As an important measure for energy saving and emission reduction, the semiconductor lighting energy-saving industry has attracted the attention of the government. On October 12, 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission and other six departments jointly announced the "Opinions on the Development of Semiconductor Lighting Energy-Saving Industry", and introduced many measures to focus on cultivating this emerging strategic industry. In addition, the “Ten Cities and Ten Thousand Miles†pilot demonstration project is also being carried out in depth, fully demonstrating the government's emphasis on energy conservation and emission reduction and the cultivation of strategic emerging industries, which will provide policy support for the development of China's semiconductor lighting industry.
Second, the huge market is also the biggest opportunity for the development of China's semiconductor lighting industry. First, with the acceleration of China's urbanization process, about 14 million people from rural to urban areas each year, semiconductor lighting will form an emerging market in China. Second, China is the world's largest producer and exporter of lighting products, with an annual output value of 230 billion yuan and an export value of 16 billion US dollars, accounting for 18% of the world market; 80% of the world's energy-saving lamps are produced in China. At present, the traditional lighting industry is undergoing transformation, and many traditional lighting companies have begun to enter semiconductor lighting from the fields of street lamps and functional lighting. It is estimated that the efficiency of semiconductor lighting in 2010 will reach 120lm/W, exceeding all traditional light sources. In 2015, LED lighting will enter the market of more than 20% of general lighting. Third, China is a big country in the manufacture and consumption of automobiles and consumer electronics. The manufacture of mobile phones, computers, and TV MP3s accounts for about 40% of the world's total. It has become a global mobile phone, TV, computer, and automobile production base. LED-backlit TVs are marketed. Concerned that domestic automotive LED applications are progressing from low-end (inside lighting) applications to external (including headlamps) applications, which will provide a huge potential market for the development of the semiconductor lighting industry.
Third, China has the advantages of developing raw materials, talents, research and development, and industrial resources for semiconductor lighting. China is the world's largest resource source for gallium (78%), indium (70%) and rare earths (40-50%). Rich in scientific and technological human resources, with a total of 42 million people, the world's first. With a sound basic research and applied research system, the research and development costs are low, and the industry has strong industrial manufacturing capabilities and relatively low cost advantages. These resource advantages provide tremendous opportunities for industrial development.
However, we should also see that while having good development opportunities, the future development of China's semiconductor lighting industry faces serious challenges from technology and market.
From a technical point of view, the production of high-quality, high-reliability, low-cost semiconductor lighting products to meet the ever-increasing lighting quality needs not only solve the problem of light color and light efficiency, but also need to solve a systematic The problem also requires systematic research from different perspectives such as basic research and development, industrialization technology, key equipment and materials.
From the perspective of the market, it is necessary to grasp the scientific development of the law, handle the relationship between the traditional lighting industry and the emerging lighting industry, fully understand the development prospects of energy-saving lamps and high-efficiency lighting products; cultivate emerging application markets according to the characteristics of LED technology, find universal The breakthrough of lighting application; analyze the current stage, industry form and operation mode of semiconductor lighting according to the law of the development of emerging industries, and cultivate a truly well-known brand.
The government needs to support different types of continuous technological innovation in basic research, core technology breakthroughs, product development, industrialization and other aspects; improve industrial concentration and overall industry level, prevent low-level redundant construction, and enhance industrial international competitiveness; The government is well connected with national goals; building bridges between available technology and consumer perception; clarifying government procurement methods, actively promoting and guiding, and formulating and implementing relevant standards and norms.
Future development strategy
For the resource conservation and environmental protection, semiconductor lighting is of great significance for China to upgrade its industrial structure and occupy the leading position of the world's high-tech industry in the future. China should pay full attention to the semiconductor lighting industry in terms of strategy, and promote the sound and rapid development of the semiconductor lighting industry with scientific layout and long-term development strategy. Can be divided into the following stages of development:
From 2009 to 2010, the driving force of industrial development mainly came from the support of national policies, the improvement of LED performance, and the breakthrough of professional markets such as display, backlight and special lighting. At this stage, the development strategy of China's semiconductor lighting industry should focus on the application of development to foster the market and promote alliance strategy to achieve resource sharing. At the enterprise level, we should focus on brand strategy and provide diversified and personalized products in the form of products and services.
From 2011 to 2015, the government banned incandescent lamps through decrees, LED costs fell, and the promotion and application in commercial, public lighting, and high-end residential markets became the main driving force for semiconductor lighting development. The strategy at this stage should be to implement industrial integration, realize international patent exchange authorization, promote the integration of mainstream brands and applications, and develop stereotyped products by combining lamps and light sources.
From 2016 to 2020, with the improvement of lighting quality performance, the LED industry will enter a mature stage and become a high-volume mainstream lighting market. At this stage, the development of China's semiconductor lighting industry will be demand-oriented, achieve technological innovation alliance, actively develop semiconductor lighting products with core patents, formulate international standards, and move to the global market.
Semiconductor lighting is a revolutionary technology strategic emerging industry. Its development is not only a technology transformation, industry transformation, but also knowledge transformation including modes, concepts, services and habits. In the 100 years of the 21st century, LED technology still has a long way to go. The semiconductor lighting industry has just started, far from being mature. Despite the severe challenges, the Chinese market is huge, with a good investment environment and a lot of room for development. We will integrate the development of industrial resources with an open attitude and a global perspective, and contribute to the sustainable development of humanity and the progress of society.
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