Mobile broadband will become mainstream in China's broadband market in 2014
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) of the People ’s Republic of China, there were 130 million wired broadband users in China by the end of 2009, with an annual growth rate of 25%. Ovum predicts that between 2010 and 2014, broadband subscribers will grow by nearly 250%. There is no doubt that broadband services are the key to the growth of existing players, and new players are actively involved in this growing market. Although DSL is now the mainstream of the market, we expect that New Generation Networking (NGA), especially FTTH, will become the leader in the fixed-line market in 2014. Mobile broadband will occupy nearly 70% of the overall broadband market in 2014. The replacement of mobile and fixed-line broadband (FMBS) will appear on the market, but will only have a limited impact on the market. At the same time, in some cases, mobile broadband will still be a complementary solution to fixed-line broadband.
DSL is the mainstream of the market today, but NGA will become the market leader in 2014.
In December 2009, DSL accounted for 81.3% of China's overall broadband market, with an annual growth rate of 25.2%, even higher than the overall growth rate of the broadband market. The current mainstream networking technology DSL (mainly ADSL) will reach the peak of growth in 2011, and then began to decline. New-generation networking, such as fiber-to-the-building (FTTB) and fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) will be the main growth drivers for broadband Internet access in the future. We expect fiber to the building / home (FTTB / H) to catch up with the number of DSL users in 2014.
There are many emerging bundled services and convergence integration services in the market, and China Telecom provides several of the most popular services. We expect to see more such services in the future. Businesses must cooperate more closely for the benefit of each other. With support from the Chinese government, convergence will occur in network construction, business activities, new types of services, and regulatory rules.
Mobile broadband is developing rapidly and will become mainstream in the future
Since China issued a 3G license in January 2009, the development of mobile broadband has become quite rapid. Chinese telecom operators quickly set up 3G networks and began to provide services. The speed and scale of 3G investment in the Chinese market have set world records.
In 2009, direct investment in 3G by three Chinese telecom operators amounted to 160.9 billion yuan (US $ 23.6 billion), covering 32.5 million 3G base stations; indirect investment is estimated to reach 569 billion yuan (US $ 86.3 billion). The result is rapid growth of mobile broadband in China-According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), 3G subscribers grew by 15 million in less than a year, of which more than 6 million subscribers are mobile broadband subscribers. At least in the short term, the emerging mobile broadband market is expected to prevent fixed-line broadband from reaching its peak in market share.
Mobile broadband is also a substitute and complement for fixed-line broadband.
The penetration rate of the fixed network in China is only 24.4%, and there is a clear urban-rural gap. Obstacles to the development of fixed-line broadband just give mobile broadband a chance to develop. We predict that mobile broadband will grow faster than fixed-line broadband, and will account for 70% of the overall market in 2014. Although we expect the replacement of fixed network and mobile broadband in the future, the development is quite divergent. Fixed-line broadband is quite limited in the suburbs. We expect that when the 3G network is launched, households who only use 3G mobile broadband will be the norm. In metropolitan areas with fixed-line infrastructure, we expect to see multiple usages among different customer floors. In most corporate environments, where both mobile and fixed-line broadband services are required, bundling will be the norm. Some general consumer groups, like students, may only choose mobile broadband networking. Therefore, mobile broadband is also an alternative and complementary product of fixed-line broadband.
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