[The real killing of the internet carmaker began with mass production delivery. Who are survivors today? ] In this wave of car builders, someone slammed down and did not travel far enough to regret it - he did not expect to be so far to the shore, and the water was so deep.
There are companies that have joined the ranks of the carmakers. They have not yet appeared on the scene and have already lost their lives.
Hengyu (Shanghai) New Energy Automotive Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Hengyu New Energy") is facing the dilemma of closure. Not long ago, Hengfu New Energy stated in its “announcement†to all its employees that “Investors and Hengyi bank accounts have been frozen, resulting in serious difficulties for the company’s operation and management, unable to properly pay employees’ salaries and other expenses, and the company’s inability to continue. Conduct business activities."
Yunyun.com has found that Hengxun New Energy also urges employees to complete the resignation within three working days. If the overdue period is not met, it is deemed as the automatic termination of labor relations.
According to public information, Hengyi New Energy was established on January 12, 2016, and is engaged in technology development, technology transfer, etc. in the field of vehicle technology, auto parts technology, and new energy technology. Its major shareholder is Guizhou Anyuan New Energy. Automobile Co., Ltd.
According to Hengyun New Energy's official website, the company's infrastructure is readily available, including a modeling center, a trial center, Sanpower Lab, an electronic engineering lab, and a control system lab. However, all this will end with Hengxin New Energy.
Just like the end of the new energy is only a small bubble in the carmaker, an early exit. However, the greater challenge facing the new vehicle builders is still behind.
Starting from 2018, car makers will usher in a severe competitive environment. This year is a key node in the development process of China's new energy automotive industry. A series of measures will gradually promote the new energy automobile industry in China to a true marketization:
On April 1, the double-tracking policy was officially implemented;
On April 17, the National Development and Reform Commission revealed that it will cancel the restriction on foreign-invested shares of new energy vehicles in 2018;
On June 11, the transitional subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will come to an end and will be subsidized according to the 2018 standard...
For the new forces of car repair, these policy measures may not have formed lethality, because the new forces have not yet reached this stage - the delivery of mass production is the first hurdle that new car companies need to move through. The constructors are in serious trouble.
Real killing begins with mass production delivery
For a long time, the financing ability of the constructors is often regarded as their ability to build barriers to competition and as a reference standard for evaluating the development potential of the company.
Automobiles are capital-intensive industries, and the rate at which cars are burned is calculated monthly or even in days. A number of founders of the new car maker expressed to Yunyun.com on various occasions that they were surprised by the speed of burning money. At first, they felt that the 10 billion yuan car was too exaggerated. After entering, they found that this figure was very difficult to support. To mass production delivery.
There is no strong capital to back up, making a car is no doubt ridiculous. It is precisely for this reason that the auto industry has staged a financing drama for the new vehicle builders in recent years.
Up to now, many new car companies have completed a considerable amount of financing, the outstanding record. Judging from the cumulative financing scale, Weilai Automobile has over RMB33 billion in vehicle sales, Qiduo Automobile has RMB17 billion, Weimar Automobile has RMB12 billion, Car and Home has over RMB5.7 billion, and Xiaopeng Automobile has over RMB5.3 billion. . Yunyun.com has learned that in 2018, Che Hejia and Xiaopeng Motor will also launch a new round of financing plans. Weilai Motors is also preparing for the IPO and will raise funds for making cars in the public offering market.
There is another voice in the industry for financing.
"The car is not being used to make money out of the car," said Gu Feng, co-founder and CEO of Ai Chi Motors. "How much it costs to develop a car, build a factory, and how much it costs for daily operations, I say in my dreams. Numbers."
Gu Feng was responsible for financial affairs for more than 20 years at SAIC, and he was fully aware of the expenditure on vehicle R&D, factory construction, and personnel team.
He believes that new car companies will not die from funds, but die from the product.
Gu Feng’s views on the new vehicle builders are like a clear flow.
The daughter-in-law always sees her in-laws, and even the best stories will eventually come to the end. The key link in making a car game is the mass production delivery of the car.
Xiaohong Automobile vice chairman and president Gu Hongdi, former chairman of JP Morgan Asia Pacific Investment Bank, spent many years in capital, but he did not use capital as a standard. Gu Hongdi believes that the mass production delivery of products will be a node that will determine whether the new vehicle manufacturers can continue to obtain financing:
If it can deliver smoothly, generate cash flow, and form a supply chain, then there will be further capital for financing;
If the product fails to sell after it is listed, the promised sales cannot be realized and the cash flow will not be generated. The follow-up capital will naturally no longer follow suit.
In other words, the financing war set by the new vehicle-building forces is only a prelude to the hardship of building a vehicle. The real stifling will begin with the mass production delivery of automobiles.
Zhu Jiangming, Chairman of the Zero Running Car, said in an interview with Huyun Network that the first product of the zero-run car, the S01, is scheduled to be delivered to customers in the first quarter of 2019. He said that if a zero-run car fully respects and saves every penny of investors, it must implement its self-hematopoietic function within an investment of 10 billion yuan. Zhu Jiangming's so-called "blood hematopoietic function", that is, through the mass production delivery of automobiles, generates cash flow and provides zero running power to continue running. Zhu Jiangming believes that a high degree of dependence on financing does not squander everything, and that building a vehicle must be careful and the product is the core.
With regard to mass production, Jia Guanghong, research director of Beijing Automotive Industry and Investment Corporation, believes that the lack of a "killer" production model in the new car makers.
For example, the Ford T-shaped vehicle in a conventional car sold for 5 years from 2500 to 170,000 in the first year, and soon exceeded the 300,000 mark, and eventually sold thousands of cars. Millions of vehicles have become the originators of mass production vehicles in the world.
However, it's easier to build explosion models. In fact, even if automotive products are popular with consumers and the amount of reservation is considerable, this is only the first step. Because mass production is a capability that can be sold, it must be able to produce the car.
Selling unmanufactured cars to consumers is tantamount to fraud.
Mass production of life and death test
As a benchmark in the electric vehicle industry, after nearly a year of struggle, Tesla has not yet shaken off the production difficulties of the Model 3, and even fell into a “structural bankruptcyâ€.
In July 2017, Musk claimed that Model3 had received more than 500,000 orders. Therefore, Musk developed a "hell-style" mass production plan: in August 2017, it produced 100 vehicles; in September 2017, it produced 1,500 vehicles; 2017 Before December of this year, we must achieve the goal of producing 20,000 cars per month.
Under this mass production program, Tesla's battery technology director and other senior executives could not stand it.
In order to achieve the promise of mass production for investors, Musk personally supervised the production and was already too busy to go home. The Musk who couldn't live without a bath couldn't care so much and slept hard on the factory floor.
However, so far, after successively cutting off the production capacity of MODELS/X models, the Tesla Model 3 has not achieved its 2,500-week capacity target.
Model3 has tens of thousands of components, of which 1/3 are from suppliers outside the United States, and any minor glitches in the supply chain can cause major production problems. For example, the increase in the production capacity of power batteries has its own laws. To ensure battery safety, it is impossible to engage in "Great Leap Forward" production.
There is a contradiction between the return cycle of capital requirements and the automobile production cycle. This is an important reason why Tesla is in a mass production dilemma, and it is also the source of the pain of Musk.
Can domestic new car manufacturers solve this contradiction? The answer is not optimistic.
Vehicle production involves a series of problems such as plant construction, equipment installation and commissioning, and capacity ramping. It takes at least three years for a factory to prepare for production, and problems arise in the production process.
There is an empty set of good production equipment.
We still take Tesla Model3 as an example. The automation level of its factories is self-evident. There are 150 automatic robots in the factory area. However, it is puzzling that some of its production lines are still handmade, assembled and spliced. At present, the production capacity of Tesla's production line is only about 1/10 of the design capacity. The domestic manufacturers of new vehicles are also equipped with advanced production equipment. The ability to successfully release production capacity is also a challenge.
In addition, in order to prevent the lack of capacity due to parts and components problems, it is necessary to maintain close communication with suppliers and prepare goods in advance. Therefore, car repair also test the car companies on the integration of industrial chain resources and scheduling capabilities.
At present, among the new domestic car manufacturers, there are almost no models that actually achieve mass production delivery, and the fastest is only on the eve of delivery.
As the founder of Weilai Auto, Jianghuai Automobile stated on its interactive platform on April 20th that the company and Weilai Automobile are concentrating their efforts on the preparations for mass production and delivery of the ES8. Li Bin, chairman of Weilai Automobile, also revealed at the Beijing Auto Show that production car ES8 will begin delivery in early May 2018.
Li Bin said that due to the need for product safety inspections, to meet quality standards, resulting in actual delivery time than previous internal plans have been delayed. We can wait and see if the Weilai car can be delivered on time.
For new car manufacturers, 2019 and 2020 will be the most severe and darkest moments, and it will be possible to achieve a “zero-to-one†leap by 2020.
The Xiaopeng car G3 model has been booked on the first day of the Global Mobile Internet Conference (GMIC) and is expected to be delivered before the end of 2018. The first model of the singularity car iS6 will be delivered in volume by the end of 2018; the first product of the zero-run car S01 It is scheduled to be delivered to customers in the first quarter of 2019; Xinte Automobile will also be delivered in volume by the end of 2018.
It can be seen that 2018 is a year of reviewing the results of the efforts of the new vehicle manufacturers and is also a decisive point for deciding whether or not capital will continue to be invested. In this year, whether or not the new automobile manufacturers can deliver on time and in mass production, the problems encountered in mass production will surface, which is a major test for the new forces of construction.
From OEM to Homegrown
Careful people will find that automobile groups in Europe, America, Japan, and other regions are relatively concentrated, while Chinese automobile companies, especially new construction vehicles, are characterized by multiple and scattered features. Some people think that this is due to the fact that the domestic new vehicle builders have yet to undergo a cruel market test.
This is similar to the saying that "the new carmakers can only survive 3 to 5 homes."
Judging from the current situation, the most important thing for new vehicle builders is how to survive. This requires sufficient cost control capacity, supply capacity, and mass production capacity. The market of new energy vehicles is changing and the national policy is increasingly stringent. The industrial chain of new energy vehicles is in a changing era. Whether an enterprise has long-term strategic capabilities determines how far an enterprise can go.
The qualification of pure electric passenger cars is a big problem that cannot be bypassed. Without this qualification, the electric car products produced cannot be sold normally. Due to the difficulty of applying for qualifications, if you wait for a successful application and then produce a car, the opportunity cost is too high and it is not worthwhile. At present, the approval of the production qualification of pure electric passenger vehicles is still suspended. For the new forces that cannot apply for qualification, the cooperation with the traditional vehicle manufacturers is actually very helpless.
In an interview with Yuyun.com, the founder of the singularity car Shen Haishun stated that the new forces of the car makers are innovating in terms of product definition, overall business model, mode of operation, and internet innovation thinking, making them more innovative and resourceful than traditional car companies. Integration advantages.
It is very clear to those who are engaged in automobile production that even if the electrification has drastically reduced the threshold for building a car, the automobile is still a manufacturing industry with a high degree of professionalism and technical characteristics. Therefore, many new automobile manufacturers basically adopt the first car. The "new model of resource consolidation" - leading R & D and design, procurement of parts and components, found OEM cooperation OEM.
Shen Hailu believes that adopting the OEM model can effectively shorten the cycle of building new energy, and at the same time, it also practices the concept of “respecting tradition and boldly innovating†and does not duplicate “wheels†to bring the high-quality smart electric car in the most efficient manner. To the user.
Yunyun.com has learned that Singular Point Motors will transition from its "manufacturing model" to its own production. With the settlement of the Suzhou Odyssey Automotive Production Base, the singularity car has formed a layout of two production bases of “One for Twoâ€.
In 2016, the Singular Point Smart New Energy Automobile Industrial Park project settled in Tongling, Anhui Province. It is mainly engaged in the production of high-quality Zonda smart new energy vehicles and is currently under construction. Together with the Suzhou production base, which is based on high-quality, small-scale, smart new energy vehicles, Singular Point has laid a good foundation for the mass production of future products. Under such a reserve, it can not only satisfy the private user market, but also Prepare for advancement in the area of ​​time-shared leasing.
Shen Haishun said that building a car is a long-term undertaking. It cannot be eager for success and it must endure loneliness. He told Huntun.com that the shortcomings of the new carmakers were in terms of core technology accumulation, quality management, etc. Therefore, while steadily building a model and mass producing it, the Singularity car also looks to the future and will develop and produce systems. The solid layout serves as the company's core strategy.
In the past year or two, Xiaopeng Motors slowed down the pace of running, began to slowly polish automotive products, down to earth to do automatic driving and intelligent networking. Xiaopeng’s chairman He Xiaopeng told Hunthun.com that “slow†means “fast†and a good product needs time to accumulate. He Xiaopeng believes that vehicles delivered to users must have a long-term value capability. Such value capabilities include endurance and safety and reliability.
Building a car is a complex project that can be difficult to accomplish on your own.
Xinte Motors CEO Xian Yue told Huyun Network. In early 2018, Xinte and China FAW Group reached a strategic cooperation to jointly build the new special first model DEV1. Xinte Automobile is an emerging new energy automobile company with advanced product concept. China FAW has a very complete vehicle manufacturing process. The two complement each other's advantages. This is an important reason why Xinte Automobile can quickly launch DEV1.
First Yue said to Huntun.com that the competition between the new forces of Rover has only just begun and there are still many opportunities for new entrants. The new special car to do is to do three things: make a good car, sell the car to the customer and serve the customer well. The cooperation with FAW will also provide a strong guarantee for the completion of mass production delivery of the first model by the end of 2018.
However, the industry also has many criticisms of the OEM model.
The automotive industry belongs to the manufacturing industry. In addition to the core R&D technology, the manufacturing process is also crucial. If the company lacks the capabilities in this area, it will lose much of its competitiveness in the future.
An industry source told Yunyun.com that there were not many successful cases of foundry business. This was a one-hit sale. The contemporary industry found that the technical difficulties had broken through, and the market opened, and it would end the OEM.
"When the four major processes are not in their hands, there is endless coordination, it is difficult to ensure consistency, and asset-building is not easy," the industry source said.
It is precisely for this reason that the new vehicle builders have invested heavily in building their own factories and personally control the production process of automotive products.
On April 25, 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Science and Technology issued the "Mid-term and Long-term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry", setting a phased goal in the field of new energy: By 2020, the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million vehicles; By 2025, new energy vehicles will account for more than 20% of automobile production and sales.
According to the statistics from Huhunyun.com, only some of the car manufacturers' new car production capacity exceeds the 2020 development plan. The overall overcapacity of new energy vehicles may become a prominent issue.
In the next few years, it will not only be a new force for building cars, including traditional car companies. It will face fierce competition and there are probably only a few companies that can finally participate in global competition.
Xiao Chengwei, an expert on the National Expert Group for the “863†Program on Energy Efficiency and New Energy Vehicles, believes that with the rapid changes in the auto market in the future, it is difficult to infer which new vehicle builder can stand out from the crowd.
"I believe that victory belongs to those companies that can turn ideas into down-to-earth businesses," said Xiao Cheng.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, said that the Internet is a brand-new concept for the automotive industry to seek breakthroughs. It is not known until the physical vehicles have been verified by the market. He believes that after the mass production model is listed, if it cannot quickly open the market, it will only rely on the strong "blood" of the follow-up funds, otherwise the company will be unable to sustain it.
"Production does not mean that we have a firm footing, but it is really on the arena," Cui Dongshu said.
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